ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ALTMAN Z- SCORE DAN ZMIJEWSKI PADA PERUSAHAAN KOSMETIK YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Abstract

Increasingly intense competition in the cosmetics industry in Indonesia, one of which is the number of artists
opening a cosmetics business and besides the entry of many cosmetics brands from abroad which makes
existing cosmetic companies must be careful in running their business. This study aims to predict the
bankruptcy of cosmetics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with the Altman Z-Score model
and the Zmijewski model. The sample in this study was cosmetic companies listed on the Main Board of the
Indonesia Stock Exchange as many as 4 companies. The data source used is secondary data taking data from
the IDX, the type of data used is quantitative data. The result of this research is bankruptcy prediction using
the Altman-Z Score method showing that PT. Martino Berto, Tbk for 2016 is included in the Gray Area
category while in 2017-2018 it is predicted to go bankrupt while for PT. Mustika Ratu, in 2016 - 2018
entered the Gray Area category while the other two companies namely PT. Mandom Indonesia, Tbk and PT.
Unilever, Tbk from 2016 to 2018 is predicted not to go bankrupt. Meanwhile, using the Zmijewski method in
cosmetics companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2016-2018 is predicted not to go
bankrupt. From the comparison between the Altman Z-Score model and the Zmijewski model, the Zmijewski
model has an effectiveness of 100% compared to the Altman Z-Score model which has an effectiveness level
of 50%.